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Bayesian Solution for Monty Hall’s Paradox
Given that the guest chooses door 1 and the host opens door 3, we apply Bayesian probability to find the probability that the car is behind door 1:
is the total probability that the host opens door 3 when the guest picked door 1:
Substituting this back into the first equation:
Hence, the probability that the car is behind door 1 is , given the guest selected door 1 and the host opened door 3.
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